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ESI Brief - Analysis of the 2004 Ohio Exit Polls and Election Results

Exit polls conducted for the national media on Election Day 2004 appeared to predict that Senator John Kerry would win Ohio. Had Kerry won Ohio, he would have won the Presidency. To some observers, the discrepancy between the polls and the results suggested that there was a problem at the core of the electoral mechanism: the counting and tabulation of votes after they were cast. The discrepancy gave rise to widespread accusations that votes were shifted from John Kerry to George W. Bush. ESI answers the question: do the exit polls in Ohio support the thesis of systematic error in the election system or election fraud?

Authors: Susan Kyle, Douglas A. Samuelson, Fritz Scheuren, and Nicole Vicinanza with Scott Dingman and Warren Mitofsky

Released: 06-06-2005

ESI Data - Analysis of the 2004 Ohio Exit Polls and Election Results

Data, Figures and Charts supporting the ESI Brief - Ohio 2004 Exit Polls: Explaining the Discrepancy

Authors: Susan Kyle, Douglas A. Samuelson, Fritz Scheuren, and Nicole Vicinanza with Scott Dingman and Warren Mitofsky

Released: 06-06-2005

Outcomes and Lessons Learned from Polling Voters during Election 2004

This AAPOR 2005 presentation focuses on the logistical and analytical challenges that exit pollsters face during an election. The good news is that volunteers and survey professionals can work together to carry out exit polling as part of citizen-based election oversight. However, exit polling cannot provide sufficient oversight alone - it must be part of a more comprehensive oversight plan.

Authors: Susan Gabbard, Nicole Vicinanza, Cheryl Wiese, Rich Clark, et al.

Released: 05-14-2005

2004 Ohio Exit Polls and Election Results

The attached presentation was delivered during the American Association of Public Opinion Researchers Plenary session on Saturday May 14, 2005 as part of a larger session on the 2004 exit polls, with Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky Int'l and Kathy Frankovic of CBS News. Dr. Scheuren's analysis confirms pollster Warren Mitofsky’s assertion that the exit polls that put John Kerry ahead of George Bush in Ohio on Election Day 2004 do not necessarily indicate that there was fraud in the Ohio election.

Authors: Dr. Fritz Scheuren

Released: 05-14-2005

ESI Briefing: Election Transparency: How Ready Are States and Counties?

Usable voting data, provided in a timely manner, can facilitate statistical analysis to detect anomalies or explain apparent anomalies, reduce pressure on election officials, and increase confidence among the electorate. But we conclude that difficulty in accessing usable voting data in a timely manner is widespread. In this study we attempted to collect voting data in eight of the nine states that held primaries on Super Tuesday 2004, and in 49 counties in Ohio in the November 2 general election. Of the eight Super Tuesday states studied, only California and Ohio publicly posted comprehensive results on election night and made complete results available before certification. The briefing closes with a set of recommendations for election officials to make these data available for analysis before certification.

Authors: Dr. Susan Gabbard, Dr. Nicole Vicinanza, Dr. Fritz Scheuren, Dr. Doug Samuelson

Released: 05-01-2005

ESI Briefing: Can Exit Polls Be Used to Monitor Elections?

After having reviewed data from its own exit polls and the available analyses of media exit polls, the Election Science Institute convened a panel of experts to review the question: Can exit polls be used to monitor elections? The experts reviewed the status of exit polling methods and data from 2004 polls to identify under what circumstances it might be appropriate to use exit polling as part of an election monitoring system. The panel concluded that current media exit polls, by themselves, could not be used to monitor elections because of inherent polling imprecision. Nonetheless, for future elections, exit polls do have important uses in election monitoring. Based on this conclusion, the Election Science Institute offers recommendations on their appropriate role.

Authors: Dr. Susan Gabbard, Dr. Fritz Scheuren, Dr. Doug Sameulson, Dr. Nicole Vicinanza

Released: 05-01-2005

Preliminary SOVC Datasheet of Cuyahoga County, Ohio by Precinct

Please find a preliminary datasheet of statement of votes casts by precinct for Cuyahoga County, Ohio. This data is being provided to the public for analysis and evaluation. Votewatch has not evaluated this data as part of this publication. This data was compiled from the final official canvass supplied to Votewatch by the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections. Other counties may become available shortly, contact us if you require information about a specific county or location in Ohio. As Votewatch is dedicated to the science of elections, we will continue to work diligently to provide credible information as soon as it is available.

Authors: Steven Hertzberg, Nicole Vicinanza

Released: 12-14-2004

Votewatch Research in Ohio after November 2004 Election: Report 1

Votewatch Finds Ohio Vote not Currently Auditable, Due to Issues of Timeliness, Completeness, and Quality of Documents from County Election Officials. As rumors and questions about the Ohio vote began to surface following the November elections, Votewatch, a non-partisan, non-profit organization, submitted public documents requests to 49 Ohio counties. The public documents received are being used in an attempt to audit election procedures and the accuracy of the vote count, and to determine whether or not the voting and tabulation process in Ohio is sufficiently resistant to fraud and error.

Authors: Steven Hertzberg, Eva Waskell, Nicole Vicinanza

Released: 12-07-2004

Votewatch New Mexico Exit Poll Report: Presidential Election 2004

This report contains a summary of the exit poll results for Bernalillo County, New Mexico for the 2004 presidential election. In addition, it contains a Codebook for the survey administered, a description of the sampling and weighting procedures, and the description of the survey development process. The Codebook can be used in conjunction with Votewatch New Mexico Exit Poll Data spreadsheet, also available on this web site, if you wish to conduct any analysis on your own.

Authors: Steven Hertzberg, Susan Gabbard, Nicole Vicinanza, Fritz Scheuren

Released: 11-30-2004

Votewatch New Mexico Exit Poll Data: Presidential Election 2004

This Microsoft Excel data file includes raw exit poll data for the 2004 presidential election from Bernalillo County, New Mexico as well as the weights assigned to the data. Readers may find the relevant data definitions for this spreadsheet as part of Votewatch New Mexico Codebook for the 2004 presidential election. This codebook describes each variable in detail as well as the procedure for obtaining and weighting the data. Musik und Videos

Authors: Steven Hertzberg, Susan Gabbard, Nicole Vicinanza, Fritz Scheuren

Released: 11-30-2004

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